![]() People high in emotional intelligence appear to be more accurate forecasters ( Dunn, Brackett, Ashton-James, Schneiderman, & Salovey, 2007 Hoerger, Chapman, Epstein, & Duberstein, 2012). Such work is vital because between-person factors might impact the strength or direction of these biases. Importantly, research has only recently begun to consider the influence of individual difference variables on affective forecasting biases. Similarly, someone who expects an enduring increase in her self-esteem if she gets a graduate degree might be more likely to push herself academically and professionally than someone who suspects that her sense of achievement will be more short-lived. For example, someone who believes that he will feel permanently elated if he loses excess weight will probably be more likely to change unhealthy diet and exercise habits than someone who (more correctly) believes that he will experience a less intense and shorter-lasting mood boost. Unrealistic optimism might be beneficial at times. With regard to positive affective predictions, for example, not only do people tend to be more optimistic than accurate, but they also believe that they should be even more optimistic than they are, even if they know that such optimism is unrealistic ( Armor, Massey, & Sackett, 2008). However, some believe that the impact bias may have adaptive functions ( Wilson & Gilbert, 2005). A false negative prediction could cause someone to avoid an advantageous opportunity. An incorrect positive expectation could drive someone to a goal which in the end would disappoint. ![]() Since most of the decisions we make are based on the pain or pleasure that we expect our choices to bring, the impact bias could have negative repercussions. That is, we tend to overestimate both the intensity and duration of our emotions in response to particular events ( Wilson & Gilbert, 2005). The average person exhibits an impact bias in affective forecasting. ![]()
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